Motorheads don’t want to hear it; refuse to believe it — but ugly realities are coming down hard on the ‘09 Camaro that will very possibly cause GM to pull the plug before the first one ever rolls off the line.
Doubt that? Consider the stillborn rear-wheel-drive next generation Chevy Impala — nixed because of concerns within GM about the possibility of meeting the pending (2012) 35 mpg fuel economy edict recently passed by Congress. A lighter front-drive car with a V-6 instead of a V-8 can make the cut; a V-8 RWD Impala can’t. So it’s gone. So is the talked-about next generation GTO. And the future of the G8 sedan looks not so good. GM is openly talking about scaling back the entire Pontiac division — and ending its role as a performance brand.
No bull; not my opinion. Just facts.
Now consider the 2009 Camaro — and the world in which it will have to swim. Gas prices are already surging toward $4 per gallon for regular unleaded. And Camaro’s not even here yet. By the time the car reaches production status in about eight months or so, we may very well be at $5 per gallon.
Maybe more.
At the same time, the buying power of the dollar is falling down the well — so everything is becoming more expensive, not just gas. And most of us are not making more money to compensate. Quite the opposite. Inflation and income stagnation are hitting us hard. Those of us who still have jobs and have been able to maintain the same income we had a year or so ago are few, thankful — and nervous. Buying a new car is not on our agenda. And buying a frivolous new car even less so. Camaro is not an exotic; it is a "Joe Sixpack" kind of car — so middle class and working class buyer skittishness is no small thing.
GM is well aware of these facts — which are going to kneecap Camaro (and any car like it) on the consumer level. Whatever the projected sales potential was two years ago should probably be cut in half. Bet your bippie that the bean counters within GM have thought about this, too.
That’s bad enough — and by itself could be sufficient to make going ahead with Camaro in 2009 about as sensible as building something like a Series 62 Cadillac would have been in 1979.
But wait, there’s more. Don’t forget the 10,000 pound Tallboy bomb that’s about to fall onto GM’s head (and ours) in the form of the 35 mpg CAFE edict. That changes … everything. The recession, crippling gas prices and declining buying power of the dollar are merely the coupe de grace.
A V-6 Camaro could maybe meet the current 27.5 mpg CAFE requirement for passenger cars without major engineering changes/expenses or hitting buyers with a "gas guzzler" surcharge that would bump the purchase price of the car up by $1,000 or more.
But 35 mpg? Only a few four-cylinder economy compacts and hybrids make it under that bar. Anything much over about 3,200 pounds with an engine larger than 3 liters is getting iffy. With a 300-plus hp V-8 engine and rear-wheel-drive?
Forget it.
Don’t believe it? Chew on this:
The current Ford Mustang GT — a car very similar in layout/power and so on to the pending ‘09 Camaro — manages just 17 mpg in city driving and 26 mpg on the highway. That’s with the 4 liter V-6 engine, by the way. The GT’s 4.6 liter V-8 (300 hp) slurps it down at the rate of 15 mpg in the city and 23 mpg on the highway. To survive 35 mpg CAFE, the V-8 Mustang GT would have to somehow nearly double its current average fuel economy. How is this going to be achieved, exactly? Think Ford is worried about the Mustang’s viability?
You’d better believe it.
The new Dodge Challenger is in even worse shape, CAFE wise. Its wonderful 6.1 liter V-8 won’t last long in this world, given city mileage of 13 mpg — and highway mileage that isn’t even out of the teens (18 mpg). Yes, a V-6 version is coming, but the most efficient engines of this size/type that Chrysler has available - like Ford — don’t come close to delivering 35 mpg.
Camaro’s in the same pickle. Neither the base V-6 version nor the high-powered V-8 model have a prayer of achieving CAFE compliance. If they’re produced, buyers will be facing huge "gas guzzler" surcharges that will only add to the growing roster of negatives arguing against making a purchase — from $75 fill-ups to the general uselessness of cars of these type, beyond their ability to provide a good time.
And here’s the deal: Chrysler’s already on the hook; the commitment to production has been made. It will have to at least try to make a go of it. For awhile. Ford has a strong buyer base for the Mustang; a case can be made that even with gas guzzler fees and generally awful times, economically speaking, it’s worth trying to hold the line — at least, for the moment.
But Camaro?
GM no longer has a sure bet buyer base; the name has been out of circulation for almost seven years now. That is a long time, regardless of other external issues, such as gas prices. Rebuilding a brand/make of car is tough in the best of times. In bad times, it is a fool’s errand. And it’s a luxury that cash-strapped, no longer number one GM cannot afford to indulge. If Camaro sinks — as all signs indicate it will — GM will lose a ton of money. Remember that unlike Challenger (which is "spun off" the existing Charger sedan) GM has had to invest a great deal in what amounts to a brand-new platform/tooling and so on to make this happen. Big sales are needed to make it up. It increasingly looks as though that is extremely unlikely to happen.
Which is why GM may just abort the whole thing before it ever sees the light of day.
My SSR: 2006 Black over Silver #14 of 45 Allstate 400
Ahh Bah Hum Bug!
I don't know where you got your info from, but the USA is not GMs only market. Up here in Canada the economy is still somewhat booming, maybe not in my little world with me facing a lay off, but it seems everywhere around me they are crying for people to come work & are willing to pay more than I'm making now! Along with that the way that the Mustang, Challenger, & Camaro are designed are for the Baby Boomers which are looking at retiring & already have made their nest eggs. They will be wishing for their old hot rods & when they see these come out they will buy them just to go cruising in like in the old days. Plus the young guys & gals that are now moving in to the job market are going to spend their money on a sports car even if it isn't practical. They will want that hot rod, plus the smart ones will have not only the muscle car but will also have a truck or other vehicle to go do the daily driving. These weren't designed with those of us in between them, we have families or are just starting families are the ones that will be looking at the other vehicles you talked about & we will be on the side lines drooling over the them & wishing. However we will have to wait until we can either make a fortune to be able to have both or wait until the kids are on their own & we become the retired people.
So why the return of the 2009 Corvette ZR-1? How is it and the Caddy passing the new reg's??? Bring them out, then dump them by 2012?
Bob Lutz reports the return of the ZR-1 in mid 2008 as a 2009 model. Powered by the Supercharged LS9 w/ at least 620 HP and 590 lb-ft of torque. The 620 means 115 HP more than a Z06. The 2009 Caddy CTS-V gets the Supercharged 550+HP LSA w/ 9 lbs of Boost.
If it's true, then it's a sad sad day in MotorHead World. And that's a BIG IF!
__________________
Laughter is Timeless, Imagination has no age and Dreams are Forever!
I don't know where you got your info from, but the USA is not GMs only market. Up here in Canada the economy is still somewhat booming, maybe not in my little world with me facing a lay off, but it seems everywhere around me they are crying for people to come work & are willing to pay more than I'm making now! Along with that the way that the Mustang, Challenger, & Camaro are designed are for the Baby Boomers which are looking at retiring & already have made their nest eggs. They will be wishing for their old hot rods & when they see these come out they will buy them just to go cruising in like in the old days. Plus the young guys & gals that are now moving in to the job market are going to spend their money on a sports car even if it isn't practical. They will want that hot rod, plus the smart ones will have not only the muscle car but will also have a truck or other vehicle to go do the daily driving. These weren't designed with those of us in between them, we have families or are just starting families are the ones that will be looking at the other vehicles you talked about & we will be on the side lines drooling over the them & wishing. However we will have to wait until we can either make a fortune to be able to have both or wait until the kids are on their own & we become the retired people.
The catch is that it's a fleetwide requirement not an individual car requirement. So they need to sell so many fuel sippers for each guzzler they sell.
I look at it this way....I'm a very simple man....look at things in a simple/common sence kinda way.If you cant afford Grey Pupon dont buy a Bentley....if you cant afford 5 dollars a gallon for gas dont buy anything with a V8 (or larger) engine.
I look at it this way....I'm a very simple man....look at things in a simple/common sence kinda way.If you cant afford Grey Pupon dont buy a Bentley....if you cant afford 5 dollars a gallon for gas dont buy anything with a V8 (or larger) engine.
I agree with much of what you say, Tommy, but the REALITY is NOT ENOUGH people will. The bean counters have to sell a lot of these rocketships to make it a viable project. GM doesn't have room for any more demographic errors. I quite agree with the Original Post (with no credit given the writer ) as it lays out some pretty sobering facts for all muscle car manufacturers in a $5 gas environment (who thinks it will stop rising at $5 ? )
If they do build it, and that's a big if, considering GM's financial condition, it will be a HALO vehicle. Showroom traffic and street creds are worth a lot.
Well,if the Camaro is in the same price range of the Mustang (V6 vs V6 & V8 vs V8) I dont see why GM would have a problem selling the car.The MPG on the new Mustang GT's $uck (and I know first hand,the ex-wife still has the 2007 GT) and I personally think GM will get better MPG numbers with the Camaro.I spend all week on the road and see thousands of Mustangs, so if the Camaro is in the same price range and gets a equal or better average MPG I need a better reason why it wont sell.
Guys on the Camaro forums have waiting for years to buy the new car, most standing with money in hand.
My SSR: Aqua Blur '05,#18006, Diablo Preditor, K&N, Spoiler,
You spoke of the new Challenger, according to what I've heard and read, the car is sold out on the first years production, and they are selling into the second year now... although they have not been produced.
I tend to agree... those that want them will buy, weather they get 35 mpg or 15 mpg. The ones tht do, will be the folks that already have their living made, or are making enough to support thier new Camaro.
__________________
Be who you are and say what you feel....Because those that matter....don't mind....And those that mind....don't matter. "
They will sell , just not to me the first year or two.
We are in the time of having two or more cars.
One for transportation needs,one or more for play.
The Camaro will be a play toy for many, like the SSR is for me.
My SSR: redline red 2004 Supercharged dob 02/05/04 #4944 Kenwood navigation w/XM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pikeville904
You spoke of the new Challenger, according to what I've heard and read, the car is sold out on the first years production, and they are selling into the second year now... although they have not been produced.
Customer ship dates for the Dodge Chllenger around here are the end of May.(this month) all presold.
Why The 2009 Camaro Is Doomed
) as it lays out some pretty sobering facts for all muscle car manufacturers in a $5 gas environment (who thinks it will stop rising at $5 ? 
)
Gary
SSR DOX